Atton Rand & miscellaneous names (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
suitably_heroic) wrote in ![[community profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/community.png)
fandomhigh2016-09-05 01:07 pm
suitably_heroic) wrote in fandomhigh2016-09-05 01:07 pm
Entry tags:
Game of Chance, Monday
When students entered the Danger Shop, they would find... a large forest, spread out next to an impressive mountain range to the east and a large river to the west.
"I hate to break it to all of you, but we're not going to be playing Go Fish all semester."
Sorry not sorry.
"This class is about gambling and probability in all its many and usually incredibly dangerous forms," Atton continued. "Like, say, in a survival situation. When you're stuck by yourself traveling through dangerous territory, you have to take constant risks, deciding in the moment what risk is worth what reward. Today, we're going to give your instincts a workout. Both so I can tell how far along you are, and because it's good to stretch your brain every now and again."
And your legs. Definitely your legs.
"I want each of you to take three of these tokens," he said, holding up a green circle made of cardboard. "Each one of these represents a ration. Food. Stuff you need to not die. You keep all three of these, you'll be comfortable. You lose all of them, you're dead. But you can't sit on your rations forever, because they're finite. Enter your escape route."
He gestured towards the imposing landscape behind them.
"Each one of these roads is set up with a probability matrix behind it," he said. "You can choose to take the river; outside of some rapids, you'll probably be safe there. So it will only cost you two of your rations, unless you're unlucky. See, you have a 65% chance to catch a fish, which would let you keep one of your ration tokens. If you don't, though? You're out of luck. Dead."
He put down one of the ration tokens. "You could, of course, take the forest instead," he said. "Plenty of food there. Berries and so on. So you could make it through with all of your tokens. But it's also full of monkeys. And it's a big forest. So there's three cases where there's a 33% probability a monkey will come and steal one of your rations."
He put down another token. "Finally, you've got the mountains," he said. "Dangerous territory. Thankfully, you're not the only one it's dangerous for. There's a dead goat up top, ready to be gutted and turned into more rations. You could walk out with each one of these tokens still in your pocket." He put down the last one. "But your actual chances of making it up there without dying - or in our case, losing all of your tokens - is 35%. So... not so good."
He shrugged. "The Danger Shop's programmed with these numbers," he said. "Safeties are on, you're not in actual danger, yadda yadda, there's one slice of pizza for every token you have left at the end. Go."
"I hate to break it to all of you, but we're not going to be playing Go Fish all semester."
Sorry not sorry.
"This class is about gambling and probability in all its many and usually incredibly dangerous forms," Atton continued. "Like, say, in a survival situation. When you're stuck by yourself traveling through dangerous territory, you have to take constant risks, deciding in the moment what risk is worth what reward. Today, we're going to give your instincts a workout. Both so I can tell how far along you are, and because it's good to stretch your brain every now and again."
And your legs. Definitely your legs.
"I want each of you to take three of these tokens," he said, holding up a green circle made of cardboard. "Each one of these represents a ration. Food. Stuff you need to not die. You keep all three of these, you'll be comfortable. You lose all of them, you're dead. But you can't sit on your rations forever, because they're finite. Enter your escape route."
He gestured towards the imposing landscape behind them.
"Each one of these roads is set up with a probability matrix behind it," he said. "You can choose to take the river; outside of some rapids, you'll probably be safe there. So it will only cost you two of your rations, unless you're unlucky. See, you have a 65% chance to catch a fish, which would let you keep one of your ration tokens. If you don't, though? You're out of luck. Dead."
He put down one of the ration tokens. "You could, of course, take the forest instead," he said. "Plenty of food there. Berries and so on. So you could make it through with all of your tokens. But it's also full of monkeys. And it's a big forest. So there's three cases where there's a 33% probability a monkey will come and steal one of your rations."
He put down another token. "Finally, you've got the mountains," he said. "Dangerous territory. Thankfully, you're not the only one it's dangerous for. There's a dead goat up top, ready to be gutted and turned into more rations. You could walk out with each one of these tokens still in your pocket." He put down the last one. "But your actual chances of making it up there without dying - or in our case, losing all of your tokens - is 35%. So... not so good."
He shrugged. "The Danger Shop's programmed with these numbers," he said. "Safeties are on, you're not in actual danger, yadda yadda, there's one slice of pizza for every token you have left at the end. Go."
Sign In!
Re: Sign In!
Re: Sign In!
Re: Sign In!
Re: Sign In!
Re: Sign In!
Re: Sign In!
Re: Sign In!
Listen to the Lecture
Or go 'your teacher asked you to WHAT?'
Re: Listen to the Lecture
By the time Atton was finished talking, she hadn't paid much attention to the probability odds involved, but she had heard the part about not being in any real danger. That could only go well.
Re: Listen to the Lecture
"Eugh," she muttered. "Does anybody want these?"
What was she going to do with pizza?
Re: Listen to the Lecture
Look, she was not even going anywhere near fake-water, she'd take the extras to trek through the forest and deal with the damn monkeys.
Re: Listen to the Lecture
"Then come to me after I make it through, and you can have what's left," she decided. And then shrugged. "I have no use for the food, but I intend to do the assignment."
Re: Listen to the Lecture
Okay, sure, she was always going to go for the mountain, but it was nice to have something to back it up.
Re: Listen to the Lecture
Well, that was an easy answer, wasn't it? Even a short term was better than nothing at all.
"Anyone wish to work together?" he offered. "More people may increase our odds of survival?"
...Okay, that might not have been the way the scenario was programmed, but Hyacinthe figured that company would be pleasant if nothing else.
Exercise
Exercise: River
Get on this makeshift raft and go down this river with this makeshift fishing net. You have a 65% chance of netting a fish and making it out of here with one token, no problem. Good luck.
Exercise: Forest
Three times, you run a chance of being assaulted by them and losing a token. Each time, the chance is one out of three.
Hope the threes are with you.
Re: Exercise: Forest
... Which meant that she was doing a lot of monkey dodging. The monkeys probably weren't expecting her to go barreling straight up the trunk of a tree, herself, though. Or catching one with her tractor beam and using it to bowl the other monkeys over.
By the end of the course, she still had two tokens, which she was going to count as a victory, even if she didn't particularly want the prize.
Re: Exercise: Forest
And seriously. Screw monkeys. Ugh. They were awful.
Exercise: Mountain
Climb up this mountain - it's been configured to be easily climbable - and reach the dead goat up top. Your chances are 35%.
If you fail the Danger Shop's chance generator, it will gently nudge you back and you will fall down on a nice, squishy, comfortable mattress. You loser.
Re: Exercise: Mountain
It did not work out that way. She made it two-thirds of the way up and then missed a foothold, and scrambled for leverage through empty air for long seconds before she landed safe and sound on the mattress below.
Well. That was humbling.
Re: Exercise: Mountain
Finish Line!
Or go sit in the corner like a poor dead person.
Re: Finish Line!
Re: Finish Line!
Monkeys. Now she understood what monkeys were.
...
"But really, does anybody want these?"
Re: Finish Line!
Real pizza was currently winning out over fake practicality.
Talk to the Teacher
OOC