Political Campaigning (Thursday, January 19, 4th period)

[professor-lyman.livejournal.com]

Josh put down the spreadsheets of electoral information about Montana when the first political campaigning student came into the classroom.

When everyone had taken a seat, he stood up. "First off," his fingers tracked down the class list, "Jessica, tell us how many days we have until the election." He looked around at the rest of the students. "Today, we talk about campaign strategy. At its most basic, the campaign strategy is the political equation that will get your candidate the majority of votes cast in the election: 50 percent plus one vote."

He wrote "50% + 1" on the board and smacked it. "This seems ridiculously obvious, but it's a hard lesson to remember. You only need 50 percent plus one vote. You're not out to convince everyone. You're out to get your people to the polls and as many undecideds and soft voters of the other guy to get to 50 percent plus one. Any votes past that is gravy. You just need enough to win. An election, if you think about it, is the ultimate pass-fail grading system." He smiled. "The strategy gets you to win. Or as Lee Atwater put it, 'if you insure the other candidate can't possibly get elected, you should do okay.'"

He looked down at his notes. "Few other things to remember: the strategy can't be static. If the political climate changes, you have to change with it. Think the Congressional races in 2002--if you didn't say something about terrorism or the military you looked hopelessly out of touch at best, and bordering on criminally negligent at worse." He made a face. "I've seen some of the political ads that were rolled out for that election. It wasn't pretty.

"Anyway. You also need to remember there are two campaigns--or in this case, until after the primary, three. Politics isn't solitaire--it's poker. And assume your opponent is just as smart as you are. They'll attack you where you're weak, and defend against your attacks. Never assume they're stupid, blind, or lazy.

"The entire key to a campaign is communication." Josh paused. "Sorry for the regrettable amount of alliteration in that last sentence. So. Don't forget that the entire point of this is to get voters to support your guy. Figure out who will be in your winning voting coalition, find out what they care about, and go about convincing them that you're the one that can deliver it." He smirked. "And make sure that your voting coalition is enough people to get you to that 50 percent plus one, please. There are an embarrassing number of campaigns who failed at math on this point."

He put his notes down. "Okay. Based on what you've learned about your candidates, I want you to come up with a very, very rough sketch of your campaign strategy. I'll be giving you hard numbers next week about who lives where and how they vote so you can see how close you were, but for today, start talking strategy. This'll also be your homework. I want a hard copy of your strategy--what your guy will talk about, and to who, that will get you the 50 percent plus one, due on my desk next Tuesday." He smiled. "Because as I've said, if it's not on paper, it doesn't exist."

Comments

Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[professor-lyman.livejournal.com]

...

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[notcalledlizzie.livejournal.com]

Elizabeth has her laptop open as she waits for the other two in her group to turn up.

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[fh_jackass]

Logan sat down next to Elizabeth. "What've we got?" he asked, nodding at her laptop.

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[notcalledlizzie.livejournal.com]

"I'm thinking education is going to be key for Tester," she says. "He was a teacher, so he knows what he's talking about.

If we're looking at hitting a demographic, nationally only 25% of 18 to 24 year-olds vote. They represent 33% of the population but only account for 7% of the voters. I don't know how it works out in Montana, but if we can get the younger voters to care about the issues, and if we can get them to vote, then, that's a start."

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[fh_jackass]

"Good idea in theory, but how are we going to get young people to vote when no one else can?" Logan asked.

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[notcalledlizzie.livejournal.com]

"Target universities and colleges?" she suggested, searching on CollegeBoard.com and pulling up the Montana (http://apps.collegeboard.com/search/servlet/advsearchservlet?buttonPressed=viewResults&navigateTo=9&viewpage=1) schools. "There's 21 colleges in Montana. Even if we just went to three or four of them, it shows that we're serious about listening to what people want and that we care and will try and do something to help them."

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[fh_jackass]

Logan shook his head. "Not enough," he said. "I mean, it's a start, yeah, but if he shows up and speaks on college campuses, how many people are really going to show up or care?" He tapped his lips with his pen. "Maybe if we got local bars to offer free beer to everyone with an 'I voted' sticker?" he suggested. "And, uh, pizza, too. For the 18-21 crowd."

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[notcalledlizzie.livejournal.com]

"Well, the start's always the best place to begin," she grinned.

Elizabeth nodded. "That could work. It's not the same, but I know that the Blood Service in the UK a while back offered free pints of ice-cream to students who donated blood.

But the issue is, would it be legally allowed, or would be be accused of trying to buy their votes? Which, technically, it would be."

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[fh_jackass]

"I don't know," Logan frowned. "I figure they'd get the free beer just for voting, and no one would ask how they'd voted. So we wouldn't really be buying their votes. We'd just be letting them know that the Tester campaign understands their needs."

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[professor-lyman.livejournal.com]

Josh overheard their conversation. "The bars are open in Montana on election day," he said, smiling. "I checked."

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[fh_jackass]

Logan turned to the teacher. "So, is that legal? If we encourage bars to give free beers to people who've voted?"

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[professor-lyman.livejournal.com]

"You'd have to consult state law on it, which is a good reason to have at least one lawyer on a campaign staff for these sorts of questions, but I think you could get away with it if you aren't specifically banning anyone from getting beer if they didn't vote for your guy." Josh grinned. "Bribing people with booze is a long-standing political tradition in this country--which is why some states make the bars close on Election Day."

Re: Group discussion: Logan, Elizabeth, Jessica

[notcalledlizzie.livejournal.com]

"We'd probably need to consult a lawyer on the specifics," she nodded, scribbling it down on her notebook.