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fandomhigh2006-01-19 12:58 pm
professor-lyman.livejournal.com) wrote in fandomhigh2006-01-19 12:58 pm
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Political Campaigning (Thursday, January 19, 4th period)
Josh put down the spreadsheets of electoral information about Montana when the first political campaigning student came into the classroom.
When everyone had taken a seat, he stood up. "First off," his fingers tracked down the class list, "Jessica, tell us how many days we have until the election." He looked around at the rest of the students. "Today, we talk about campaign strategy. At its most basic, the campaign strategy is the political equation that will get your candidate the majority of votes cast in the election: 50 percent plus one vote."
He wrote "50% + 1" on the board and smacked it. "This seems ridiculously obvious, but it's a hard lesson to remember. You only need 50 percent plus one vote. You're not out to convince everyone. You're out to get your people to the polls and as many undecideds and soft voters of the other guy to get to 50 percent plus one. Any votes past that is gravy. You just need enough to win. An election, if you think about it, is the ultimate pass-fail grading system." He smiled. "The strategy gets you to win. Or as Lee Atwater put it, 'if you insure the other candidate can't possibly get elected, you should do okay.'"
He looked down at his notes. "Few other things to remember: the strategy can't be static. If the political climate changes, you have to change with it. Think the Congressional races in 2002--if you didn't say something about terrorism or the military you looked hopelessly out of touch at best, and bordering on criminally negligent at worse." He made a face. "I've seen some of the political ads that were rolled out for that election. It wasn't pretty.
"Anyway. You also need to remember there are two campaigns--or in this case, until after the primary, three. Politics isn't solitaire--it's poker. And assume your opponent is just as smart as you are. They'll attack you where you're weak, and defend against your attacks. Never assume they're stupid, blind, or lazy.
"The entire key to a campaign is communication." Josh paused. "Sorry for the regrettable amount of alliteration in that last sentence. So. Don't forget that the entire point of this is to get voters to support your guy. Figure out who will be in your winning voting coalition, find out what they care about, and go about convincing them that you're the one that can deliver it." He smirked. "And make sure that your voting coalition is enough people to get you to that 50 percent plus one, please. There are an embarrassing number of campaigns who failed at math on this point."
He put his notes down. "Okay. Based on what you've learned about your candidates, I want you to come up with a very, very rough sketch of your campaign strategy. I'll be giving you hard numbers next week about who lives where and how they vote so you can see how close you were, but for today, start talking strategy. This'll also be your homework. I want a hard copy of your strategy--what your guy will talk about, and to who, that will get you the 50 percent plus one, due on my desk next Tuesday." He smiled. "Because as I've said, if it's not on paper, it doesn't exist."
When everyone had taken a seat, he stood up. "First off," his fingers tracked down the class list, "Jessica, tell us how many days we have until the election." He looked around at the rest of the students. "Today, we talk about campaign strategy. At its most basic, the campaign strategy is the political equation that will get your candidate the majority of votes cast in the election: 50 percent plus one vote."
He wrote "50% + 1" on the board and smacked it. "This seems ridiculously obvious, but it's a hard lesson to remember. You only need 50 percent plus one vote. You're not out to convince everyone. You're out to get your people to the polls and as many undecideds and soft voters of the other guy to get to 50 percent plus one. Any votes past that is gravy. You just need enough to win. An election, if you think about it, is the ultimate pass-fail grading system." He smiled. "The strategy gets you to win. Or as Lee Atwater put it, 'if you insure the other candidate can't possibly get elected, you should do okay.'"
He looked down at his notes. "Few other things to remember: the strategy can't be static. If the political climate changes, you have to change with it. Think the Congressional races in 2002--if you didn't say something about terrorism or the military you looked hopelessly out of touch at best, and bordering on criminally negligent at worse." He made a face. "I've seen some of the political ads that were rolled out for that election. It wasn't pretty.
"Anyway. You also need to remember there are two campaigns--or in this case, until after the primary, three. Politics isn't solitaire--it's poker. And assume your opponent is just as smart as you are. They'll attack you where you're weak, and defend against your attacks. Never assume they're stupid, blind, or lazy.
"The entire key to a campaign is communication." Josh paused. "Sorry for the regrettable amount of alliteration in that last sentence. So. Don't forget that the entire point of this is to get voters to support your guy. Figure out who will be in your winning voting coalition, find out what they care about, and go about convincing them that you're the one that can deliver it." He smirked. "And make sure that your voting coalition is enough people to get you to that 50 percent plus one, please. There are an embarrassing number of campaigns who failed at math on this point."
He put his notes down. "Okay. Based on what you've learned about your candidates, I want you to come up with a very, very rough sketch of your campaign strategy. I'll be giving you hard numbers next week about who lives where and how they vote so you can see how close you were, but for today, start talking strategy. This'll also be your homework. I want a hard copy of your strategy--what your guy will talk about, and to who, that will get you the 50 percent plus one, due on my desk next Tuesday." He smiled. "Because as I've said, if it's not on paper, it doesn't exist."