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fandomhigh2006-12-11 10:15 am
dr-jwilsonmd.livejournal.com) wrote in fandomhigh2006-12-11 10:15 am
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Good Omens...And Bad: Prophecy in Theory and Practice - Period 1
Wilson was sitting in one of the arm chairs, flipping through a book as he waited for the students to come in and get settled. As it was Friday, there was a spread of homemade baked goods, left by the angel before he'd gone away and a selection of warm morning drinks full of caffiene and sugar.
When everone was settled, Wilson stood up and began to pace the room.
"Good morning. First off I wanted to congradulate you all on a brilliant pagent. Mr. Connor, excellent work I am sure that Aziraphale will be delighted when he sees the video I took."
Picking up one of the overhead films that Aziraphale had left, Wilson set it on the overhead projector and began the lecture.
Many seers and fortune-tellers have struggled with the issue of whether using divinatory readings to predict the future is ethical, and how to do it in such a way that the subject is empowered to influence and/or create his own future.
Most people who engage regularly in divination would describe their predictions as extrapolating from causes and events already in motion to their probable results in the near future. Any scientific prediction, as well as any divinatory prediction, should include an estimate of the probability of its occurrence. Any style of divination that purposes to define a "future" or "outcome" in it has elements of predictiveness. Where people seem to get uncomfortable is when the reading gets more specific, or when timing elements are involved. So where should the line be drawn?
Many believe that it should be drawn on a case-by-case basis. When conducting a reading, one learns about the subject’s past and present from both the subject himself and the act of divination, and then can extrapolate a certain distance into the future based on that. How definite one can be depends entirely on the circumstances: 1) how stable the situation is, 2) whether random events are affecting the situation, 3) whether the future depends on the subject’s decisions or someone else's that have not yet been made, 4) how far out one is trying to predict, 5) how detailed on is trying to be. Each reader makes this decision for him or herself.
Some diviners also believe that any forecasting related to random events, such as lotteries, die rolls, gambling of any kind, etc., is not supportable by any kind of evidence (other than a common-sense discussion of the laws of probability) and therefore falls into a less ethical category of fortune-telling.
Many also believe that any system used for predicting the timing of events should include some method of discerning whether or not the timing can be predicted; that a system that makes a blind assumption that any event can be timed is unrealistic. Or to put it another way, one needs to allow the divination to also tell them if a situation is well-grounded enough in events and influences that already exist to allow prediction. And then that information should be used as the basis for sharing conclusions with the subject - if you don't think an outcome can be predicted, you would tell the subject why and what they can do to influence the outcome.
Please note that many seers believe prediction does not eliminate the subject’s free-will. A prediction of an event may simply give the subject additional information - how they respond to it is still up to them. It may not be fundamentally different from giving them information about their past or present, other than the element of probability and change, which needs to be communicated along with the predictive information. Foreknowledge of likely events is often seen as empowering, because it acts as either a confirmation that the subject is on the right path and gives confidence and hope, or gives a warning of a potential negative situation that they could avoid by exercising their free will.
All of this points toward a code of ethics within the practice of divination. But what about the very idea of predicting the future? As we’ve touched upon in this class previously, many see the activity of divination as unethical in and of itself. They believe that to share information about a subject’s future – whether it be potential or certain – negates the subject’s ability to choose his own path in a manner that is free of outside influence. It has been argued that merely by knowing what one is supposed to experience, the subject’s actions will be directed toward creating truth out of what was initially simply suggestion.
This concept is referred to as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Self-fulfilling prophecies are set in motion by merely relating the details of a prediction to its subject. The subject consequently attempts to avoid this outcome by taking actions that are seemingly in opposition to the prophecy, but which ultimately puts him directly on the path laid out by the prediction. An excellent example of this in literature is the Greek tale of Oedipus, wherein a man brought about his own downfall by attempting to thwart a prophecy.
Related to this is the idea of the self-defeating prophecy, wherein the very prediction itself sets into motion a sequence of events that brings out the defeat of the prophecy. In the above example, Oedipus’s father Laius was attempting to create a self-defeating prophecy, but instead succeeded in fulfilling it.
Some people believe that all prophecies fall into one of these two categories: self-fulfilling or self-defeating. In this case, it may be considered unethical to even engage in divination, because the act of producing a prophecy creates events that would otherwise not have happened. However, others believe that the majority of fortune-telling falls somewhere in the middle, in a place where a sense of the future offers the subject an opportunity to take control of a situation in a way that he would not have originally possessed.
DISCUSSION: Explain your position on whether the act of divination can be considered ethical or unethical. How might a practitioner balance the ability to offer positive insight into a subject’s future with the pitfalls of exercising undue influence through their predictions?
HOMEWORK: Do all prophecies exist to fulfill or defeat themselves, or can knowing one’s possible future offer opportunities for change? Write a brief essay outlining an example of how a prophecy might fulfill itself simply by being told, or conversely how a prophecy might defeat itself in the same manner. (Do not use the Oedipus example above.)
[ooc: OCDs areon the way Up. Class is in session!]
When everone was settled, Wilson stood up and began to pace the room.
"Good morning. First off I wanted to congradulate you all on a brilliant pagent. Mr. Connor, excellent work I am sure that Aziraphale will be delighted when he sees the video I took."
Picking up one of the overhead films that Aziraphale had left, Wilson set it on the overhead projector and began the lecture.
Many seers and fortune-tellers have struggled with the issue of whether using divinatory readings to predict the future is ethical, and how to do it in such a way that the subject is empowered to influence and/or create his own future.
Most people who engage regularly in divination would describe their predictions as extrapolating from causes and events already in motion to their probable results in the near future. Any scientific prediction, as well as any divinatory prediction, should include an estimate of the probability of its occurrence. Any style of divination that purposes to define a "future" or "outcome" in it has elements of predictiveness. Where people seem to get uncomfortable is when the reading gets more specific, or when timing elements are involved. So where should the line be drawn?
Many believe that it should be drawn on a case-by-case basis. When conducting a reading, one learns about the subject’s past and present from both the subject himself and the act of divination, and then can extrapolate a certain distance into the future based on that. How definite one can be depends entirely on the circumstances: 1) how stable the situation is, 2) whether random events are affecting the situation, 3) whether the future depends on the subject’s decisions or someone else's that have not yet been made, 4) how far out one is trying to predict, 5) how detailed on is trying to be. Each reader makes this decision for him or herself.
Some diviners also believe that any forecasting related to random events, such as lotteries, die rolls, gambling of any kind, etc., is not supportable by any kind of evidence (other than a common-sense discussion of the laws of probability) and therefore falls into a less ethical category of fortune-telling.
Many also believe that any system used for predicting the timing of events should include some method of discerning whether or not the timing can be predicted; that a system that makes a blind assumption that any event can be timed is unrealistic. Or to put it another way, one needs to allow the divination to also tell them if a situation is well-grounded enough in events and influences that already exist to allow prediction. And then that information should be used as the basis for sharing conclusions with the subject - if you don't think an outcome can be predicted, you would tell the subject why and what they can do to influence the outcome.
Please note that many seers believe prediction does not eliminate the subject’s free-will. A prediction of an event may simply give the subject additional information - how they respond to it is still up to them. It may not be fundamentally different from giving them information about their past or present, other than the element of probability and change, which needs to be communicated along with the predictive information. Foreknowledge of likely events is often seen as empowering, because it acts as either a confirmation that the subject is on the right path and gives confidence and hope, or gives a warning of a potential negative situation that they could avoid by exercising their free will.
All of this points toward a code of ethics within the practice of divination. But what about the very idea of predicting the future? As we’ve touched upon in this class previously, many see the activity of divination as unethical in and of itself. They believe that to share information about a subject’s future – whether it be potential or certain – negates the subject’s ability to choose his own path in a manner that is free of outside influence. It has been argued that merely by knowing what one is supposed to experience, the subject’s actions will be directed toward creating truth out of what was initially simply suggestion.
This concept is referred to as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Self-fulfilling prophecies are set in motion by merely relating the details of a prediction to its subject. The subject consequently attempts to avoid this outcome by taking actions that are seemingly in opposition to the prophecy, but which ultimately puts him directly on the path laid out by the prediction. An excellent example of this in literature is the Greek tale of Oedipus, wherein a man brought about his own downfall by attempting to thwart a prophecy.
Related to this is the idea of the self-defeating prophecy, wherein the very prediction itself sets into motion a sequence of events that brings out the defeat of the prophecy. In the above example, Oedipus’s father Laius was attempting to create a self-defeating prophecy, but instead succeeded in fulfilling it.
Some people believe that all prophecies fall into one of these two categories: self-fulfilling or self-defeating. In this case, it may be considered unethical to even engage in divination, because the act of producing a prophecy creates events that would otherwise not have happened. However, others believe that the majority of fortune-telling falls somewhere in the middle, in a place where a sense of the future offers the subject an opportunity to take control of a situation in a way that he would not have originally possessed.
DISCUSSION: Explain your position on whether the act of divination can be considered ethical or unethical. How might a practitioner balance the ability to offer positive insight into a subject’s future with the pitfalls of exercising undue influence through their predictions?
HOMEWORK: Do all prophecies exist to fulfill or defeat themselves, or can knowing one’s possible future offer opportunities for change? Write a brief essay outlining an example of how a prophecy might fulfill itself simply by being told, or conversely how a prophecy might defeat itself in the same manner. (Do not use the Oedipus example above.)
[ooc: OCDs are
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